>THERE will be anger and annoyance over the Transport Ministry's plans to slow down car growth and raise the cost of driving through more extensive ERP coverage and higher charges. But without these enabling measures, the planning objective to convert Singapore into primarily a nation of rail-and-bus commuters will be much harder to realise. The ministry's goal is to have seven in 10 morning peak-period trips made by rail and bus, against six at present. This is no exponential leap. It is achievable, provided motorists accept the idea that this is not a planners' whimsy but an economic necessity drawn from time-and-motion studies. The Government had in past years been too generous, in light of the data, in meeting the car-owning aspirations of the middle classes. The car population grew by 40 per cent in the last 10 years, to about half a million. Based on land-use planning priorities, the ministry projects that the rate of road-building will also have to be halved in the next 15 years. Against this backdrop, it would be churlish for car owners to grumble about crowded roads and slower driving times.
Hence, the thinking that rail complemented by the bus will have to be standard means of moving people about. The rail network expansion that will cover the island more evenly will take 12 to 15 years to complete, allowing for project delays. In that time the population augmented by immigration and resident foreigners working here will have grown substantially. In the intervening years, the improvements to the existing MRT network in carrying capacity and daily frequencies - in addition to bus service upgrades - are intended to wean Singaporeans off optional car use. A punitive element in the form of higher ERP charges has unavoidably to be added to produce the desired effect. Until now ERP rates have been moderate, which weakened the intended effect of minimising trips made in hot zones. Cheap use of the car compounded the easy availability of COEs, which became much cheaper in recent years. The result has been the worsening congestion which has now to be untangled.
The ministry has made the right decisions in wanting to force down the rate of car growth and laying the mechanism of calibrating ERP rate increases, besides widening the ERP catchment. It is admittedly painful for car lovers. The fact Singaporeans are prepared to pay so much to own cars indicates that the public transport system as exists does not meet their need adequately. This is why it is being expanded, at considerable cost. The probability of rail becoming a habit will not be high if car-use management is not executed to prepare the way.
