LAST week, my wife hit a deer in Maine with her dad's SUV. Deer are a hazard on rural roads, and crashing into an animal weighing hundreds of kilos at 60 to 70 kmh is no small matter.
Thankfully, she was safe; the airbags didn't even inflate. Still, the front and radiator were squished in.
After that, I can understand why people are again buying trucks and SUVs. There's that feeling of safety - real and perceived - that comes from being in a big, heavy vehicle. But when petrol soared to over US$4 (S$6) a gallon sometime last year, that sense of security was grudgingly put aside in the interest of home economics. Americans suddenly turned "green" and squeezed into compacts, sub-compacts and, of all things, hybrids.
But now that petrol prices have fallen from their highs, car preference is reverting to mean.
Across the US, the average petrol price last week was US$1.61 a gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration. Petrol is not only cheaper than it was last summer, but nearly a dollar and a half less than a year ago. Running a car hasn't been this cheap in years. No wonder people are migrating back to their comfort zone.
While new vehicle sales in the US last December are expected to have been sharply down compared to the year before, they nevertheless are believed to have been higher than in November, as is usually the case. (Because this column is supposed to be about economics, we might want to note that the maintenance of this edge over November could turn out to predict an eventual reversal of collapsed consumption in the US.)
Not only that, but the automotive information site Edmunds.com predicts that trucks racked up higher sales than sedans for the first time in nine months. "Meanwhile, Toyota has slowed production of the industry's flagship hybrid vehicle, the Prius, due to lack of interest and growing inventory of the once best-selling model," said the car-market tracker.
All this is going to set the world tut-tutting at America and its carmakers again. Why can't America get over its addiction to big autos? But US car buyers deserve some understanding.
Sure, it's hard to imagine what use a suburban family might have for a big SUV when the average trip involves driving the kids to school and picking up grocery on the way home. (And in a place like Singapore, you scratch your head.) Nonetheless, a large number of American car buyers live in places where it does make sense to own a truck or SUV.
In the US north-east - and for that matter, in its north-west and the plains of its mid-west too - a half metre of snow overnight isn't unheard of in the winter. So having four-wheel drive and a high clearance isn't a bad idea. And then, there are a whole lot of things for which having a big carrying space helps - like taking the household trash to the county dump (there's no bin man out in the countryside, or even in some suburbs).
True, there are hybrid SUVs that are supposedly greener. But these are really toys rather than anything useful, away from the city. In the driving conditions you find on rural roads - and there's a lot of that in America - a hybrid will be running almost exclusively on its petrol engine rather than electric.
I suspect there are more vehicle-buying people living in places in America where an SUV or truck is justifiable than there are car buyers in most countries. So there really is a good reason why so many are sold in America. Though they may be a waste of space and resources in cities, traditional SUVs and trucks are perfect and even necessary for situations many people find themselves in.
The Big Three American car companies - General Motors, Ford and Chrysler - are sure to be blamed by environmental moralists for the return of trucks. Especially after they've had to be bailed out of their troubles by Washington. But how can you fault Detroit for simply meeting a demand? Business, after all, is about selling into demand. And in this business, a large number of buyers want the big trucks and SUVs that Detroit makes. Indeed, foreign carmakers have been trying to muscle in on the Big Three's grip on this market as well, and can only claim green credentials because they failed.
Where the Big Three deserve blame, however, is in failing to wean Americans off brute-force big engines. Today, the same performance can be achieved with smaller engines. And US car companies have access to the technology, through wholly-owned or joint-venture car companies overseas or through special relationships with other foreign companies; Detroit can make better SUVs. The other shame is why the US market cannot conceive of a full-size sedan running on an engine smaller than 3 litres.
The US car industry, strangled by unions into losses, isn't perfect. But it doesn't always deserve the attacks launched upon it. Car sales are more complex than it might seem to those who never need to drive, or to drive in conditions and distances typical for rural residents in north America. There's a good reason for much - though admittedly, not all - of the SUV and truck sales in America.
Besides, what would you want to be in, staring at a moose?
This article was first published in The Straits Times on Jan 6, 2009.
