The Chevrolet Volt is expected to be the icing on General Motors' 100th birthday cake this week.

The much-promoted sedan, which will operate as an electric car in typical local driving, is intended to provide a jump-start for the company's second century.

The timing of tomorrow' s event is fortuitous, for much more is riding on the Volt than whether a new model using experimental technologies will be a hit. For if the Volt succeeds, it could put the troubled company on a whole new path after 10 decades tethered to the internal- combustion engine.

If it fails, it could drag GM, and perhaps the entire struggling American auto industry, even further behind Asian competitors.

It was on Sept 16, 1908, that William Crapo Durant filed the incorporation papers that formed GM, with a revitalised Buick as its foundation. The centennial should be a time of joy at the company.

But, with losses since 2005 approaching US$70 billion, and Toyota having accelerated past GM into the No 1 spot in global auto sales, the company's staff won't be dancing in party hats.

Instead of toasting the glory days when GM owned half of the United States car and truck market - its share peaked at 51 per cent in 1962 amid suggestions that it should be broken up under antitrust laws - GM executives are looking expectantly ahead to November 2010.

That's when the Volt, expected to break cover this week in close to final form, is due to reach customers.

By mobilising its formidable marketing resources,GM has piqued interest in the Volt. Anticipation is high; when unauthorised photos and surreptitious video footage emerged recently, they spread across the Internet with viral intensity. (The photos and video can be seen at autobloggreen.com.)

The interest goes beyond the usual curiosity about the styling and features of a wholly new model.

The public, like industry veterans and seasoned experts, seems to grasp the potential: the Volt could revive
Detroit's fortunes while loosening Opec's stranglehold.

Burt Rutan, the aerospace visionary whose accomplishments include the Voyager round-the-world aircraft and who is also an electric-car enthusiast, is among the believers. "I expect the Chevy Volt to be both a success and a transportation game-changer," he said.

Though electric cars were common in the early 20th century, gasoline models had won out by the 1920s. Since then, the concept has surfaced again and again, but never in a car with mass-market appeal.

Still, throughout the 20th century GM was developing breakthroughs in electrical systems - coil ignitions, electric starters, computerised powertrains and digital infotainment systems - that mainly ended up advancing its fossil-
fuelled vehicles.

But at the same time, GM researchers were quietly investigating alternatives to internal combustion. In the 1960s, the research and development staff experimented with fuel cells, hybrids and plug-in electric cars.

By the mid-1990s, GM took a gamble that electric propulsion was ready for public consumption. It leased 1,100 two-seat EV1 commuter cars, based on the Impact electric concept car.

The EV1 was stymied by its short range - sometimes only 50 miles on a charge.

And unlike the Volt it had no backup power if the batteries ran down. Yet the EV1 had a devoted following, and lessees protested when GM took back the cars to crush them. GM called the EV1 a US$1 billion learning experience.

Those lessons, and recent knowledge gained developing vastly superior lithium-ion batteries, are the Volt's great enablers. But despite widespread enthusiasm for GM's brilliant 2007 Volt concept car, there are growing doubts about the Volt's chances of success.

Some of that uncertainty can be traced to GM's reluctance to put its cards on the table, potentially ceding a
competitive advantage more than two years before the car goes on sale.

But there is also considerable doubt about whether lithium-ion batteries can meet the public's high expectations
for range and durability.

It is clear that both Toyota and Honda, which have done lithium-ion research, are taking a wait-and-see approach toward lithium-ion - and may actually be moving to other technologies.

Finally, there are questions about the cost. GM executives concede that they are revising the price upward.

While the company initially hinted at a US$30,000 starting price, executives have recently suggested that the Volt might end up in the mid- to high-US$40,000 range.
- NYT

This article was first published in The Business Times on Sept 15, 2008.