By: Christopher Tan

In Seville, Spain

Early this week, crude oil hit a record US$140 (S$192) a barrel. Just five years ago, it was hovering around US$30.

Pump prices have risen in tandem. In the United States, the world's biggest consumer, petrol is touching US$4.50 a gallon (about 4.5 litres) - nearly five times what it was during the crisis of 1973.

In Singapore, pump prices have been rising every month since last July. One litre of petrol now costs well over $2. And observers say $3 a litre is just a matter of time - when oil hits US$200 a barrel.

Mr Ng Weng Hoong, editor of EnergyAsia.com, a Singapore-based news portal on the energy industry, says 'people will be getting rid of their cars because they can't afford to drive'.

He reckons US$200 a barrel - a forecast he made well before Goldman Sachs did - will happen in the next five years.

However, he concurs with other industry observers that the world is not going to run out of oil any time soon.

There are ample reserves off the US coast and there are tar sands in Canada from which oil can be extracted - but at a price.

'We have run out of cheap oil,' says Mr Ng. 'We are stripping away the world's easy oil, creating the basis for a long-term and permanent oil crisis.'

That does not bode well for drivers. Especially when demand for fuel is going to soar on the back of more vehicles on the road.

There are now around 900 million vehicles in the world, nearly double 1995's figure. Industry experts expect it to reach 1.8 billion in less than 30 years.

Which is why car manufacturers are now turning their attention to making more efficient machines.

Some are focusing on hybrids, while others are looking to alternative fuels.

And there is a group that is mixing and matching in the belief that there isn't a one-size-fits-all approach to clean and thrifty vehicles.

Germany's Daimler, for instance, is working on a host of solutions, from hybrids to fuel cells to pure electric cars, as well as cars with far smaller engines than you would expect them to have.

Dr Herbert Kohler, its group vice-president of research and advanced engineering, says: 'We are convinced that the future route to sustainable mobility will not be dominated by one single technology. Instead, customers expect tailor-made solutions.'

The company showcased some of these solutions at the Mercedes-Benz TecDay in Seville, Spain, last week.

It was the first time that it was taking the veil off future products to let journalists sample them.

One prevailing theme that emerged was the 'downsizing' of engines. This is quite an about-turn for a company that, like its German rivals, has been making bigger and beefier engines in the last few years.

To offset the smaller displacements, the carmaker is relying more on forced induction.

For instance, the first model Singapore buyers will see is a 1.6-litre C180 that will arrive next year.

With a higher boost, it will be just as powerful as the 1.8-litre car it will replace. And it will be the first Mercedes C-class to qualify for Category A COE.

From as early as next year, buyers can also look forward to petrolelectric versions of the S-class as well as the all-new E-class.

The group's Smart range is also back in the limelight because the cars are small, light and very frugal.

This is refreshing since cars have been growing heftier in the last 20 years. According to studies, the average car in the US now weighs 22 per cent more than it did in 1988.

It is not uncommon to find new models weighing 100kg more than their predecessors.

The Smart was deemed too expensive for the Singapore market a few years ago. But now that it has electric as well as hybrid variants, things may change.

Such cars qualify for Singapore's green vehicle rebate, which is effectively a 40-percentage-point cut in the main registration tax.

Mercedes-Benz will also launch a diesel-electric hybrid. It will be interesting to see this car here.

On the one hand, it could enjoy the green vehicle rebate. But on the other, it will attract higher annual taxes that private diesel cars are slapped with.

But even if this model is not viable, there are others in the carmaker's fuel-efficient range that might.

Drivers, a breed that Daimler reckons 'will never give up the freedom' of a car, can look forward to products that are currently under wraps as well.

Dr Kohler, also Daimler's chief environmental officer, says the group spent 4 billion euros (S$8.5 billion) on research and development last year, and has committed 14 billion euros between now and 2010.

If other manufacturers do likewise, the road ahead for personal mobility should remain open - even if the days of 'cheap oil' are over.

This article was first published in The Straits Times on 22 June, 2008